2019-04-28: Pascal’s Wager


I’m on a bus on the way to an interview. This is the first time a company will expense my hotel, food, and transportation in a way that requires me to compile receipts.

They allocate $60/day for meals and snacks, so I’m considering what meal I’ll have upon arrival.

The Norton Introduction to Philosophy

Chapter 2: Is It Reasonable to Believe without Evidence?

Blaise Pascal (1623-1662): The Wager

Questions:

Pascal likens the decision whether to believe in God to a bet. In an ordinary bet we choose a proposition; for example, โ€œThe Yankees will win the 2020 World Series.โ€ Then we specify the payoffs: how much you win if the proposition turns out to be true, and how much you lose if it turns out to be false. Represent Pascalโ€™s Wager as a bet in this sense.

  • If the proposition “God Exists” is true: If one believes they will have eternal life in heaven, if one does not they have eternal suffering in hell.
  • If the proposition “God Exists” is false: If one believes or does not, it doesn’t matter.
  • If you believe in God, there is really no downside. If you don’t, you have a chance at eternal suffering.

Pascal insists that โ€œyou must bet.โ€ Why does he say this?

  • Everybody dies and must choose one of the two choices.

Pascal says that โ€œunity when joined to the infinite does not increase it at all.โ€ Say what he means by this.

  • โˆž+1 = โˆž

True or false: Pascal maintains that if you wager for God and lose, you will be no worse off than if you had wagered against God.

  • In the case of God not existing, True.
  • The answers say that you would be “grateful” “humble” and “a good friend” even if God didn’t exist, which compensates for no heaven.

Misc

I’m Standing in the hotel room in my suit, learning to tie a tie, watching the Bloomberg channel on cable… really feeling like a business adult, especially when all the people on TV are dressed in suits too.

See also